Legendary screenwriter William Goldman penned a famous (and succinct) quote about the movie industry: “Nobody knows anything.”

There’s a little more to it than that, but basically it boils down to the fact that it’s all a guessing game. Scripts, casting, the final product, all of it. You just never know what’s going to work, and you might be right this time, but you’ll be wrong next time.

There are fewer moving parts when it comes to predicting the success of a song, but record executives and artists are incorrect all the time, too. For instance: Doris Day cried after recording “Que Sera Sera” because she thought it would ruin her career. Burt Bacharach co-wrote “What The World Needs Now Is Love,” but didn’t like it. He played it for Dionne Warwick who didn’t think much of it either, which made him really not like it. Jackie DeShannon thought the song was great and made it a Top 10 hit. And, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago, all the US record companies rejected Toni Basil’s “Mickey,” a song which eventually hit #1 and became an 80’s classic. I could go on. So I will.

This brings us to Little Walter.

Little Walter knew something about picking hits. His first single, “Juke,” reached #1 on the R&B chart in 1952. His next two singles reached the Top 10. And when not making his own records, he played harmonica for Muddy Waters — a situation which greatly benefitted Muddy since Little Walter was the most innovative and virtuosic blues harp player of his time.

Our other character in this story is Willie Dixon. Dixon knew something about the hitmaking game, too. He wrote them for Muddy. He wrote them for Howlin’ Wolf. Led Zeppelin based half their early material on Dixon’s catalog. In 1953, Dixon took the gospel song “This Train” and changed the lyrics, taking what was once heavenly and bringing it down to earth, titling the new song “My Babe.”

Dixon knew a stable of blues artists, but he had only one person in mind to perform “My Babe,” and that was Little Walter…..who said no. Not just once, but again and again…..for two years. He didn’t like the song and had no intention of recording it, but eventually, Chess Records looked at Dixon’s track record and, despite Little Walter’s misgivings, decided maybe he should give it a try. They finally accomplished what Dixon could not and convinced him to get into the studio.

Released as a single in the winter of 1955, “My Babe” spent five weeks at #1 on the R&B chart, becoming the biggest hit of Little Walter’s career. Willie Dixon also wrote plenty of songs that flopped, but he was right about this one. And Little Walter recorded a string of hits, but was wrong to turn down this one. Their positions could just as easily have been reversed. Nobody knows anything. Not all the time anyway.

So don’t do none of that midnight creepin’ ….. unless it’s with Little Walter.